| Yes, homeopathy is dead.
Details concerning its long-anticipated demise were released at
about this time last year, by the editors of The Lancet.
Needless to say, their report came as a surprise to thousands of
successful homeopathic practitioners, hundreds of thousands of satisfied
homeopathic patients, and dedicated scientists involved in ongoing
research in homeopathy in laboratories and clinics around the world.
But the editors of The Lancet appeared unconcerned with
reactions from these quarters. Though they confirmed, that which
even they could not dismiss with a peremptory wave, that homeopathy
is experiencing an explosive growth in popularity around the world,
faced with this fact they nevertheless rest their evaluation of
homeopathy’s demise on the same basis as they and their ilk
have done for the past 200 years. Blithely, they reiterate yet again
their presumption that homeopathic dilutions are “absurd”
– needless to say, without adducing any actual evidence to
that effect. And they glibly reference "150 years of unfavorable
findings" as testimony against homeopathy, without seeming
to notice that the testimony comes from the same quarter today,
as it did 150 years ago, namely, the community of skeptics.
In short, the editors of The Lancet have done nothing
more than to display their faith in the assumed monarchy of their
own gold standard, as though the coin of veracity had only one face
- needless to say, their own face, the face of controlled research.
Appropriately enough, they conclude their obituary with a reference
to Kant, who reminded us, “…we see things not as they
are, but as we are…”
…though the irony of this invocation appears to have escaped
them.
In any case, what the editors of The Lancet predictably
fail to notice, is that the 150 years they reference have produced
no direct evidence against homeopathic practice, and, further, offers
living testimony to the fact that what has persisted over that period
of time is controversy, that is to say, disagreement, in other words,
a difference of opinion: in short, the issue remains undecided,
the controversy unsettled, the lines drawn precisely where they
have been drawn for nearly two centuries. And yet the editors
of The Lancet have the gall, or gullibility, to claim victory
out of the deadlock.
But, except for purposes of self-serving propaganda, there is no
apparent reason why skepticism should win the day today, when it
has failed to do so for the past 150 years. The fact is, homeopathy
has always worked, it works today, and it will work again tomorrow.
Simply, it's called a difference of opinion, based on competing
bodies of evidence. In a word, it reflects the fact that the intervening
years have produced no definitive proof on either side. Instead,
we have on the side of the skeptics, a series of controlled trials
showing that homeopathy doesn’t work; while on the side of
homeopathy, we have an enormous literature documenting homeopathic
effects, and the constantly increasing witness of countless individuals
who believe in observed results rather than careful calculations.
It is true, we would acknowledge, that our eyes can deceive us.
But it is also true, what the skeptical community likes to deny,
that vision can be sharp and perception discerning, and furthermore
that numbers can be wrong, wrongly counted, wrongly applied, and
wrongly interpreted.
Of course, this really is all the editors of The Lancet
have documented, that we are faced with a conflict, their method
versus ours. Is anyone surprised they like their method better than
they like ours? Did anyone expect they had changed their mind in
the last few months, from the opinions they have held for 150 years?
Is repetition of long-held notions supposed to represent the advance
of science?
*****
There are those who think The Lancet is, or should be,
a beacon for civilization, rather than a bullhorn for bureaucrats
or an apologist – wittingly or otherwise – for the pharmaceuticals.
Sadly, however, statistical analysis is in such favor these days,
that a mere digit carries inordinate weight in the legislatures
of the world, and in the hearts and minds of some in the scientific
community itself, to the detriment of the rights of the public to
choose their own health care.
But the editors of The Lancet trivialize concern for those
rights as representing a "...politically correct laissez-faire
attitude ... towards homoeopathy..." and, oddly, see a movement
to eliminate free choice as evidence of “enlightenment”
in our legislative bodies. Perhaps worse, in taking this position,
the editors of The Lancet seek to elevate scientific opinion
to the level of public guardian, protector of the public welfare,
arbiter of truth, making of science nothing more than a church,
and of government, the priesthood. Those with contrary views or
“discredited” methods need not apply.
Certainly, it might be advisable to avoid such provocative comparisons,
but the point is this: right or wrong, science is a system of belief,
not a method of governance.
As reflecting their belief system, the difficulty with the position
adopted by the editors of The Lancet rests, first, on the
inability of common sense to grasp that which is unfamiliar, and
which goes against the grain of intuition. But in a universe populated
by quantum events, black holes, and dark matter, the editors of
The Lancet can not seriously believe that tagging ultra-dilute
homeopathic remedies as “absurd” has any purpose other
than propagandistic manipulation.
As reflecting their belief system, the difficulty with the position
adopted by the editors of The Lancet rests, second, on
a failure of method, that is, on the inability of controlled research
to extend its reach from the efficacy trial in conventional medicine,
to the far-flung practices to which its adherents would like it
to be applied. The true believer insists that the controlled trial
can appropriately be applied to everything from homeopathy to dowsing,
from telekinesis to high-end audio. Yet it is by no means clear
that this peculiarly gifted stepchild of the conventional medical
system is really up to the task – though, whether it is up
to the task, or not, is admittedly a fair question.
*****
From the beginning, the goal of controlled research has been to
clarify the effectiveness of specific medical interventions in alleviating
specific medical symptoms, or well-delineated (allopathic) complexes.
An early, fairly quaint example is found in the work of Dr. C. H.
Parry, in the late eighteenth century, who conducted a crossover
study comparing the effectiveness of two varieties of English rhubarb
versus Turkish rhubarb, in alleviating cases of diarrhea. Quaint
or otherwise, however, his research is thoroughly comparable to
the essential characteristic of the most sophisticated research
studies conducted today, for example, in examining the effectiveness
of Vioxx in controlling pain, SSRI’s in controlling depression,
and Thalidomide in resolving infertility problems.
Lest I inadvertently offend anyone’s sensibilities, let me
emphasize that reference to these infamous medicaments is not intended
to reflect negatively on conventional medications, but to highlight
that controlled research has as its primary purpose only the measurement
of effects of medication (or other treatment intervention) on a
specific symptom or condition. The controlled trial does not generally
aim to assess safety of a medication, nor treatment protocols, nor
anything other than the specific effect of a specific medicine upon
a specific symptom.
The importance of this fact in our present context is simply this:
in homeopathy, as a rule, such a direct link between a single symptom
and a specific medication, or remedy, is simply non-existent. Although
this is, of course, an oversimplification, as regards controlled
research it remains an important issue for the ample reason that
the dramatically differing method of action of homeopathic remedies
introduces numerous confounders into the experimental theatre, confounders,
needless to say, to which researchers have rarely paid sufficient
attention.
This is not to suggest that the controlled trial cannot measure
homeopathic medicine. What it does suggest is that the process of
measuring homeopathic action is not as direct as the more fanatical
devotees of the controlled trial like to pretend. But in one way,
the skeptic is in fact correct: if we claim that homeopathy has
a real effect in the real world, then we ought to be able to demonstrate
that capacity under experimental conditions. In this connection,
the editors of The Lancet have hit the nail on the head:
hitherto, homeopathy has for the most part failed to demonstrate
its healing powers under the gaze of the experimentalist.
Many homeopaths have rationalized this failure on the basis of
the unique character of homeopathic remedies in acting on the “energic”
or “spirit-like” domains, or because of the necessity
for extreme individualization of treatment in homeopathy. But these
objections miss the point, for, in spite of all of this, we still
claim to cure disease, and therefore the simple fact is that, at
the end of the trial, the patient ought to be healthier than at
the start, regardless the mechanism that effected the transition.
Therefore, the failure of homeopathy to convincingly demonstrate
its curative powers demands an explanation. But the explanation
is simpler than might have been expected: in a word, the task of
designing a trial that accurately measures outcomes is complex,
and has not until recently begun to attract the serious attention
it deserves. But, in the wake of recent improvements in trial design,
even in the last 5-10 years, we already see a dramatic shift toward
trial outcomes reflecting positively on homeopathic efficacy. (1,
2) It is most germane to note that these recent studies are often
conducted by professionals well versed in experimental design as
well as clinical practice of homeopathy, a necessary combination
of skills that have hitherto been mostly lacking, especially in
the rag tag assortment of trials trotted out by the editors of The
Lancet for their funeral dirge.
Taking a simple example, when one gauges efficacy of Belladonna
against placebo, but counts only 5 of the 1040 symptoms associated
with Belladonna, then one will unavoidably undercount symptom production
by verum. In fact, one will undercount by roughly 99.52%.
The thoughtful skeptic might object, that these figures exaggerate
the problem because, of the 1040 symptoms, many are close duplicates.
This is a legitimate objection; therefore, perhaps a truer calculation
could be made if we reduced the number of symptoms from 1040 to
200, or 100, or to even fewer distinct symptoms. However, sadly
for our skeptical critic, even a little reflection reveals that
this leaves us…
…admitting that such a trial still produces a greater or
lesser undercount in the number of symptoms produced by verum;
…confirming the common observation that the necessity to
account for confounders weakens the findings in a controlled trial;
and
…confirming a) that counting can be simultaneously precise
and inaccurate; b) that calculations can be accurate and wrong;
and c) that statistical outcomes are in and of themselves meaningless,
until we analyze how data has been generated.
Which makes one wonder, how, exactly, does one differentiate supposedly
“objective” measurement from supposedly “subjective”
observation?
These, after all, are the kinds of questions that led to the introduction
of measures - in and around the time of Dr. Parry's investigations
- that we now take for granted, to guarantee accuracy in research
into mainstream medical practices: placebo control, blinding, randomization,
crossover designs. One wonders, why have comparable measures not
been long since introduced, to assure that outcomes from research,
as applied to disparate practices, can also withstand critical scrutiny?
*****
The editors of The Lancet reported that homeopathy is
dead...
...but perhaps they misspoke themselves. Perhaps they intended
instead to remark on the appalling failure of controlled research
to demonstrate its superiority to empirical practice, for a period
of time spanning nearly 200 years, in spite of its extravagant and
hitherto unsubstantiated claims to the contrary.
Simply, the controlled trial is not a “gold standard,”
if for no other reason than it is not a “standard” at
all. If one thinks about it, after all, a “standard”
is an entity, an object, against which other objects are measured.
Thus, “gold” is indeed a standard – put a nugget
of gold in the hand of a poor man and he is rich; put a nugget of
gold in the hand of a rich man, and he is richer. A scale, by comparison,
may weigh a nugget of gold at 1 ounce, and a nugget of fool’s
gold at 1 ounce – but the scale cannot tell which is which.
But the skeptic claims to be an expert in calculation, not in grammatical
constructions, so we must turn away from semantics to substance:
as with any tool, the accuracy of the controlled (or other “systematic”)
trial depends on the quality with which it is forged, and the skill
with which it is applied. And that is the seat
of the controversy that has persisted for at least 150 years: have
research scientists adapted the controlled trial as well to homeopathy,
as they have to the conventional practices around which it was originally
developed?
More important, what is seemingly always obscured in the haze of
self-congratulatory rhetoric with which the skeptical statistician
surrounds himself, and what is otherwise well known and universally
acknowledged, in reality, there is only one gold standard
in science; it is known as "replication," better described
as "independent corroboration."
But the advocates of the controlled trial have no patience with
independent corroboration (of which "replication" is but
one variety). They have no patience, even, for acknowledging that
“evidence” includes more than numbers, that “systematic”
describes a well-conducted case study as well as the process of
calculation, and that “objectivity” is as apt a descriptor
of good field observation as it is of counting. And they have no
patience to await confirmation of observations and measurements
from the domain of the laboratory or the ruminations of the theorist,
preferring instead to proclaim, on what mystical basis is unclear,
that there are no new discoveries forthcoming, worth waiting for.
Somehow, we have let the skeptics obscure the fact that bias and
error were identified before the advent of placebo controlled research,
and that they persist in the wake of randomization and the chi square.
In a word, the controlled trial has never been validated; it has
never proven itself against alternative (independent) forms of measurement,
except in the domain of allopathic medicine, with which it has evolved
hand in glove for the past 300 years.
It took nearly three centuries for controlled research to develop
to its present state as a universally applauded allopathic art form,
from its humble origins in Dr. Parry’s investigations into
the anti-diarrheal properties of rhubarb. But can the controlled
trial accurately measure homeopathy? Or high-end audio? Or cranio-sacral
therapy?
Findings from quantitative trials confirm and refine observations
from conventional medical practice, and are enriched by discoveries
in the laboratory. This is known as independent corroboration. But
in homeopathy, in high end audio, in cranio-sacral therapy, and
in other domains that ignite the fury of the “dispassionate”
skeptic, results produced by the conventional controlled trial stand
in marked contrast to empirical evidence. In these domains as well,
laboratory findings are inconclusive at best, and theory simply
has no alternative explanation for the events described in the literature.
But never mind that you have evidence to support your views and
preferences, if the evidence is not carved from an approved tablet.
And never mind that you experience a benefit from practices a skeptic
happens to abhor. Never mind that you like Coke better than Pepsi.
Never mind that you think the expensive interconnect cable improves
the sound of your hi-fi: your perceptions are wrong, they must be
wrong, for they have been rendered wrong by the technologists of
the blinded trial, who are smarter than you are. And if you persist
in disagreeing with them, it is just you’ve forgotten ...their
wisdom is grounded in numbers - or, more accurately, on probabilities
- and readily reveals the truth to anyone with fingers on which
to count.
*****
Truly, The Lancet occupies a prominent and enviable position
on the world stage. But such a position comes with responsibilities,
not just privileges. It is time, in short, for the editors of The
Lancet to acknowledge the presence of others in the assembled
company: pride is not a substitute for balance; numbers complement
reason, but don’t replace it.
The editors of The Lancet have forgotten that politics
is not synonymous with science, regardless how strongly we adhere
to our beliefs, or how long we persist in them, even if we hold
them dear for 150 years, or more. Differences of opinion must be
reconciled, not obliterated by legislation or prejudice. The editors
of The Lancet forget that methodology is only an aide in
the pursuit of truth; it is not, cannot, and must not be elevated
to status as a slogan for an imagined elite.
The editors of The Lancet reported that homeopathy is
dead.
They would do well to scrutinize their sources, and double-check
their facts.
*****
References
- 2005. An Overview of Positive Homeopathy Research and Surveys,
Compiled by The European Network of Homeopathic Researchers (ENHR),
April.
- 2002. Homeopathy: The Scientific Proofs of Efficacy.
Guna S.r.l. (Milan). Compiled jointly by the Homeopathy and Biological
Medicine Research and Permanent Training Institute, with Guna
S.r.l. (This volume is reviewed in the present issue of Homeopathy
4 Everyone.)
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